Baseball fans and sports bettors know that pitching is one of the most critical parts of the game. A dominant pitcher can carry a team to victory, but injuries can derail even the best arms. One of the most common (and most feared) injuries is a torn UCL (ulnar collateral ligament), which often leads to Tommy John surgery.
For bettors, wagering on athletes returning from this major surgery is a high-risk, high-reward possibility. Is it worth the gamble? Let’s break it down, so you always know how to stay ahead of the crowd when playing on 22Bet!
The Risks of Post-Tommy John Pitchers
1. Recovery Time Is Unpredictable
Tommy John surgery typically requires 12-18 months of recovery, yet not all pitchers return at the same pace, and some need extra time to rebuild strength. Others rush back too soon and suffer setbacks.
For speculators, this means uncertainty, as the athlete might look sharp in rehab starts but falter under MLB pressure. Others may take a full season to regain command. Favoring them too early on can lead to losses.
2. Performance Drops Are Common
Even after recovery, many pitchers aren’t the same. Fastball velocity might dip, control can be shaky, and confidence may waver. Some never return to their pre-injury dominance.
Some see a decrease in strikeouts or an increase in walks post-surgery, so if you’re hoping they dominate right away, you could be in for a rude awakening.
3. Reinjury Risk Is Real
Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery doesn’t guarantee a permanent fix, and some pitchers re-tear their UCL or develop other arm issues, so betting on them only for them to land back on the injured list is a nightmare scenario.
The Potential Rewards
Despite the risks, there’s big profit potential in gambling on Tommy John returnees. Here’s why:
1. Odds Are Often in Your Favor
Sportsbooks tend to undervalue pitchers coming off surgery, but if you do your research, you can find undervalued lines on talented arms.
2. Some Do Come Back Stronger
Believe it or not, some sportsmen improve after this operation, refine their mechanics, or gain better command, like, for instance, when Jacob deGrom returned, throwing harder than ever.
If you spot a pitcher with strong rehab stats and positive reports, tipping on them early could pay off big.
3. The Element of Surprise
Many speculators avoid baseballers fresh off surgery, creating opportunities, and if you’re willing to take the risk, you might cash in before the market adjusts.
Smart Strategies
If you’re going to bet on Tommy John returnees, follow these tips to minimize risk:
1. Watch Spring Training & Rehab Starts
A pitcher’s minor league or spring training outings can reveal a lot, so look for:
- Velocity: Is their fastball back to normal?
- Control: Are they walking too many batters?
- Pitch Mix: Have they added or changed any pitches?
If they look sharp, it might be time to place a stake.
2. Fade Them Early, Wager on Them Later
- Fading them (betting against them) early in the season.
- Gambling on them later once they’ve shaken off the rust.